A 1,091-pound failed Soviet Venus probe built to survive extreme conditions is now tumbling toward Earth and experts warn it could crash almost anywhere on the planet next week.
Quick Takes
- Kosmos 482, a Soviet satellite launched in 1972, is expected to make an uncontrolled reentry into Earth’s atmosphere around May 10, 2025
- The probe was designed to land on Venus, so it has a heat shield that may allow it to survive Earth’s reentry intact
- The potential landing zone spans from 52 degrees north to 52 degrees south latitude, covering major portions of six continents
- Scientists estimate the odds of it hitting a person are approximately one in 10 billion
- Russia would be legally liable for any damage or injuries caused by the satellite’s impact
Cold War Space Relic Headed for Earth
After more than 50 years orbiting Earth, a failed Soviet Venus probe is about to come home in dramatic fashion. Kosmos 482, launched in March 1972 as part of the Soviet Union’s Venera space program, suffered a rocket booster malfunction that left it stranded in Earth orbit instead of heading to Venus as intended. Space experts are now monitoring its descent as it’s expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere between May 7 and 13, with May 10 considered the most likely date.
While most satellites burn up when reentering Earth’s atmosphere, Kosmos 482 presents unique concerns. Unlike typical spacecraft, this probe was specifically engineered to withstand the extreme conditions of Venus’s atmosphere. The descent module weighs 1,091 pounds (495 kg) and contains a specially designed heat shield that could help it survive its plunge through Earth’s atmosphere without disintegrating.
Potential Impact Scenarios
The satellite’s reentry path remains unpredictable, though experts have determined that it could land anywhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude. This vast area encompasses parts of Europe, Asia, the Americas, Africa, and Australia. Satellite trackers continue monitoring the spacecraft closely, hoping to narrow down the potential impact zone as it nears reentry. Given Earth’s geography, the most likely landing spot would be in an ocean, which covers roughly 70% of our planet’s surface.
“As this is a lander that was designed to survive passage through the Venus atmosphere, it is possible that it will survive reentry through the Earth atmosphere intact, and impact intact,” says Marco Langbroek, satellite tracker and meteor researcher.
Scientists anticipate that Kosmos 482 will reenter at approximately 150 mph (242 km/h), similar to a meteorite. While the spacecraft was equipped with a parachute for landing on Venus, experts believe this system will not function during its Earth descent, increasing the likelihood of a hard landing. Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard University astronomer, described the potential impact as equivalent to “a car falling out of the air at 100 to 200 miles per hour.”
Risk Assessment and Liability
Despite the uncontrolled nature of the descent, experts emphasize that the risk to human safety is extraordinarily low. The vast majority of Earth’s surface is unpopulated, significantly reducing the likelihood of the satellite striking populated areas or causing injuries. Scientists have calculated the probability of debris hitting any individual person to be minimal.
“If you land something in a random part of the Earth, the chance that it hits a person is about one in 10,000,” said Harvard University astronomer and astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell. “And that is because most of the Earth is not covered with people, even today. The chance that it hits you is then one in 10 billion — smaller than that. You do not have to lose any sleep over this.”
In the unlikely event that the satellite does cause damage or injury upon impact, the Russian government would bear legal responsibility. “If this were to cause damage — or worse, to hurt someone — that would be something that the Russian government would be liable for,” McDowell explained.
Soviet Space History and Legacy
Kosmos 482 has an interesting place in Soviet space history as it was a sister probe to Venera 8, which successfully landed on Venus in July 1972. While Venera 8 completed its mission transmitting data from Venus’s surface for 50 minutes, Kosmos 482 never left Earth’s orbit. The main body of the spacecraft actually fell back to Earth and likely burned up in 1981, but the reentry capsule — the component designed to land on Venus — has remained in space until now.
This incident highlights the broader issue of space debris. There are approximately 3,000 dead satellites currently orbiting Earth, with more being added regularly. As previous incidents have shown — such as Samsung satellite debris in Michigan and ISS components in Florida — space junk does occasionally make its way to Earth’s surface. Scientists are exploring strategies to address this growing problem, including the development of “space garbage trucks” designed to collect and safely dispose of orbital debris.
