Increased Tensions and Threats Amid Saudi-Israel Diplomatic Efforts

Concerns over threats of assassination are creating heightened tension for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman amid his efforts to establish diplomatic ties with Israel.

At a Glance

  • Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) fears assassination over the normalization agreement with Israel.
  • MBS references the assassination of Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat to highlight his own risks.
  • The deal includes normalizing Saudi-Israeli ties, U.S. security guarantees, and economic investments.
  • MBS emphasizes the necessity of including a credible path to a Palestinian state within the agreement.
  • Israel has shown reluctance to include a path to a Palestinian state in the pact.

Assassination Threats and Historical Precedents

MBS has expressed concerns about assassination risks as he pursues an agreement to formalize diplomatic ties with Israel. These fears are not unfounded, given the historical backdrop in the region. Drawing a parallel, MBS cited the assassination of Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat, who was killed after making peace with Israel, underscoring the life-threatening stakes involved in Middle Eastern diplomacy.

The potential normalization of Saudi-Israeli ties, part of a grand bargain that includes U.S. security guarantees, economic investments, and support for a civilian nuclear program, could transform the Middle East’s political landscape. However, this effort faces strong opposition and likely jeopardizes MBS’s safety.

Demands and Opposition

MBS insists that any agreement must address the Palestinian issue by including a credible path to a Palestinian state. This demand gains urgency against the backdrop of heightened Arab fury due to the ongoing Gaza war. However, the Israeli government has been reluctant to incorporate such a path in the pact.

This insistence on resolving the Palestinian issue is crucial for MBS because it not only affects his security but also the stability of the region. This sensitivity stems from its significant impact on younger Saudis, who are generally more supportive of his broader social reforms.

Geopolitical Ramifications

A successful agreement could substantially alter the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, potentially uniting Saudi Arabia and Israel against Iran. Still, the finalization of such a deal remains far off due to the need for U.S. Senate ratification and the upcoming presidential election, adding more layers of complexity to an already intricate situation.

Despite the ongoing Gaza conflict and rising regional anger, key players have not yet abandoned the grand bargain. President Joe Biden has indicated that Saudi Arabia desires to recognize Israel in exchange for U.S. security guarantees and a civilian nuclear facility. The U.S. has even resumed offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia as part of efforts to facilitate a Gaza ceasefire and counter Iran.

Strategic Concerns and Future Stakes

MBS’s assertion that addressing the Palestinian issue is essential for his security and as a long-term solution reflects the precarious balance he must maintain. Saudi youth, especially after the recent Gaza conflict, might withdraw their support for normalization, making this path even more perilous for the Crown Prince.

As the primary guardian of Islamic holy sites, MBS’s tenure and national security depend on devising a comprehensive peace plan that addresses these multifaceted concerns. Despite the inherent risks, he views reaching a deal with the U.S. and Israel as vital for Saudi Arabia’s future, even if it means treading one of the most hazardous paths in contemporary Middle Eastern politics.

Sources

1. The Saudi Crown Prince Is Talking About An Assassination. His Own.

2. Report: Saudi crown prince said he fears assassination over Israel normalization

3. MBS’s life in danger over Israel-Saudi deal, Politico reporter speculates – report

4. Saudi crown prince threatened ‘major’ economic pain on U.S. amid oil feud

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